Canadian consumer prices rose just 1.2 per cent in the 12 months to May, a sharp deceleration from a 2 per cent increase in April. The decline in inflation is largely attributable to falling energy prices which posted their first year-over-year decline since October 2009.  Natural gas prices were off 16.6 per cent while gasoline prices were 2.3 per cent lower.  The Bank of Canada's core inflation index, which excludes the eight most volatile components of the CPI like energy and food, rose 1.8 per cent.  Inflation in BC was also lower in May, registering an increase of 1.3 per cent.

With core inflation still lingering below target and economic data coming in weaker than expected, the Bank of Canada will now be under far less pressure to raise interest rates than it was earlier in the year. Moreover, yesterday's move by the Federal Government to tighten mortgage credit will have the same impact as a close to 1 per cent rise in interest rates on monthly carrying costs.  Given its concerns about rising household debt, this targeted action removes the need for the Bank to raise rates in the near term. We therefore do not anticipate any interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada until early 2013. 

Information provided by www.bcrea.bc.ca

For the fourth time in the past four years, the Federal Government has announced further action to restrict mortgage credit. The new measures include:

• The maximum amortization on a prime mortgage will be reduced from 30 to 25 years.
• Mortgage insurance will not be provided for properties valued over $1 million.
• Refinancing has been lowered from a maximum of 85% loan-to-value to a maximum of 80% loan-to-value.
• The maximum gross debt service (GDS) and total debt service (TDS) will be limited to a maximum of 39% and 44% respectively. Currently, GDS does not apply to qualified borrowers with credit scores over 680.

These measures will take effect July 9, 2012.

Implications for the BC home market:

• The new 25 year amortization will have a small but material impact on affordability for homebuyers. For a $300,000 mortgage, the shorter amortization period will add over $150 per month to mortgage carrying costs for homebuyers that would have instead opted for a 30 year amortization. This is equivalent to an approximately 1 per cent increase in mortgage rates.
• Longer amortization period may also impact the rental market where investors have utilized longer amortization period to lower carrying costs.
• Prohibiting mortgage insurance for properties over $1 million will impact Vancouver markets to a much greater extent than other Canadian jurisdictions. While this policy may have limited impact on credit access for high-ratio borrowers, it will tighten credit for the $1 million and over segment of the market through its impact on lenders risk management practices. This is particularly true in light of the CMHC already rationing portfolio insurance for low-ratio mortgages.

Canadian retail sales declined 0.5 per cent in April, offsetting a similar increase in March.  Weakness in the retail sector was broad-based with 8 out of 11 retail sectors recording declines. April was a particularly difficult month for new car dealers and clothing retailers which saw declines of 1.4 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively.  The retail sector in BC also had a disappointing month in April. Provincial retail sales fell 0.2 per cent while year-over-year sales growth decelerated to a modest 2.3 per cent. 

With two full months of economic data now reported for the second quarter, we have revised our Q2 tracking estimate of Canadian GDP lower to 2.4 per cent following first quarter real GDP growth of just 1.9 per cent. 

Information provided by www.bcrea.bc.ca

The Canadian economy added just 7,700 jobs in May following two months of stellar job growth in March and April that saw the edition of 140,000 new jobs. The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 7.3 per cent. Employment in British Columbia was flat on the heels of 19,700 new jobs in April. Last month's sharp drop in the BC unemployment rate to 6.2 per cent proved to be a temporary blip. The unemployment rate bounced up 1.2 per cent to 7.4 per cent in May. BC employment is up 1.9  per cent compared to May 2011.

Looking at the new home construction market, Canadian housing starts were down from May's blockbuster pace of nearly 245,000 units, but still strong at a 211,400 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).   New home construction in BC urban centres jumped 21 per cent month over month, registering 26,600  starts (SAAR) in May.  On a year-over-year basis, BC housing starts were 9 per cent lower than May 2011.

New home construction in major metropolitan areas was generally weaker last month. Vancouver's previously robust multi-family starts trended lower in May, falling 18 per cent year-over-year while new construction of single-family homes was down one per cent. Total Vancouver starts were down 15 per cent from May 2011.  Abbotsford new home construction was up 7 per cent year-over-year in May due to a 19 per cent rise in single-family starts. Housing starts in Victoria were down by nearly half compared to May 2011, the result of a slower pace of multi-family starts last month. Finally, new home construction in Kelowna was roughly flat compared with May 2011, albeit down 4 per cent. 

Information provided by www.bcrea.bc.ca

No surprises from the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this morning. The Bank opted to keep its overnight rate at 1 per cent, where it has been for nearly two years.  The statement released in support of the interest rate decision noted that, in the Bank’s judgement, Canadian economic growth and inflation are unfolding largely as anticipated. A wave of risk aversion due to heightened anxiety over the Euro-crisis has sent Canadian bond-yields plummeting and market expectations for Bank of Canada rate increases have sharply reversed course. However, in today’s statement the Bank once again signaled to markets its preference for higher interest rates over the medium term and its intention to modestly withdraw stimulus as slack in the Canadian economy is absorbed. 

The  Bank also stated that any such withdrawal will be weighed against domestic and global economic developments.  In its last interest rates announcement, the Bank suggested that the Euro-crisis had moved from an acute to chronic phase. While this turned out to be a misdiagnosis, it does suggest that the Euro-mess does not have to be completed resolved for the Bank to begin tightening policy, but it does need to be stable.  At this point, with policymakers and politicians in Europe still struggling to put out a number of fires, it is difficult to see a clear path to a stable Europe in the coming months. Therefore, it is increasingly unlikely that the Bank will begin raising interest rates in late 2012, though it has certainly left that door open.

Information provided by www.bcrea.bc.ca

The Canadian economy grew at a 1.9 per cent rate in the first quarter of 2012, as growth in consumer spending slowed and business investment accelerated. Economic growth fell short of Bank of Canada expectations of 2.5 per cent though a pick up in second quarter growth may compensate for that shortfall. We are forecasting that the Canadian economy will expand at a 2.4 per cent rate this year.

Today's GDP release probably makes the Bank of Canada's case for a rate increase more difficult, particularly given ongoing developments in the Euro-zone. We expect the Bank to hold its overnight target rate at 1 per cent at its next interest rate meeting on June 5 while also walking back the hawkish tone from its April rate decision. 

The US labour market continued to tread water in Ma following a strong first quarter of employment growth. Today's US non-farm payrolls report showed just 69,000 new jobs were created in May, following a downward revision to April employment growth to just 77,000.  The US unemployment rate ticked 0.1 points higher to 8.2 per cent.

Information provided by www.bcrea.bc.ca

Canadian CPI inflation registered 2.0 per cent (year-over-year) in April, a 0.1 point increase from March inflation of 1.9 per cent. The rise in consumer prices was led by transportation costs, including a 3.3 per cent rise in gasoline prices. In fact, Statistics Canada's gasoline Index reached a 4 year high in April. The Bank of Canada's core inflation measure, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.1 per cent in April, up from 1.9 per cent in March. Consumer prices in BC were 1.6 per cent higher in April (year-over-year), matching the increase in March.

Today's CPI report, in combination with very strong Canadian employment growth in March and April, lends further support to the Bank of Canada's case for raising interest rates this fall. We anticipate at least one 25 basis point increase in the Bank of Canada's overnight rate between October and December this year. The one factor potentially delaying a rise in rates could be an increasingly likely Greek exit from the European Monetary Union. Such an event may roil financial markets enough to put BoC rate hikes off the table.

Information provided by www.bcrea.bc.ca 

Canadian employment rose by 58,000 jobs in April following a blockbuster March in which employment increased by 82,000. Despite large job gains in the past two months, the national unemployment rate edged up 0.1 points to 7.3 per cent as more Canadian were looking for work. 

Employment in British Columbia expanded by 19,700 in April, including 16,700 full-time positions. The BC unemployment rate fell by a surprising 0.8 points to 6.2 per cent. BC employment growth is up 2.1 per cent through the first four months of 2012, a marked improvement on the weak job growth of 2011. 

The Canadian economy has added 150,000 jobs over the past two Mont's, a rate of job growth that may firm up the Bank of Canada some decision to raise interest rates this Fall.  That said, we anticipate a gradual increase in rates with the Bank of Canada testing the water with one or two 25 basis points rate hikes over the fall and winter. 

Information provided by www.bcrea.bc.ca. 

Canadian housing starts soared 14 per cent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 244,900 units. The jump in starts was driven by a big increase in multiple-unit starts in Ontario and Quebec. New home construction in BC urban centres rose over 6 per cent from March 2012, registering 22,100 starts (SAAR) in April.  On a year-over-year basis, housing starts were 1.6 per cent lower than April 2011.

Housing starts were flat on a year-over-year basis in Vancouver at 1,332. A decline in single family starts of 19 per cent was offset by a 7 per cent increase in multi-family starts.  Abbotsford new home construction was up 60 per cent year-over-year in April due to increased activity in multi-family construction. New home construction in Victoria was off 5 cent compared with April 2011.  Finally, new home construction in Kelowna fell 51 per cent on a year-over-year basis due to much weaker activity in both the single-family and multi-family segment of the market.

Information provided by http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/.